- What is the difference between large non-agricultural and small non-agricultural?
- Small non-agricultural is mainly non-agricultural data of the private sector, while large non-agricultural is the statistics of all industries in the United States.
- The small non-agricultural data was announced two days before the non-agricultural data was released, which has a predictive effect on the non-agricultural data. Under normal circumstances, the small non-agricultural data and the large non-agricultural data will not be very different. Everyone predicts big non-agricultural data based on small non-agricultural data.
What do big non-agricultural and small non-agricultural have in common? Both big non-agricultural and small non-agricultural are talking about the non-agricultural population data of the United States.
- Major non-agricultural and small non-agricultural are announced once a month
It is published once a month, usually one week before the non-agricultural data, and it has a certain predictive effect on the non-agricultural data. It is called small non-agricultural.
Small non-farmers are ADP data, which is an American automatic data processing company, and the number of employees released is more authoritative. The ADP National Employment Report is sponsored by ADP, and Macroeconomic Advisers is responsible for the development and maintenance. This report is collected from approximately 500,000 anonymous American companies and reflects the employment situation in the United States. In the first six months of 2008, samples were taken from approximately 399,000 companies in the private sector in the United States, covering nearly 24 million American employees. The ADP survey only includes employment data in the private sector, not government sector employment.
Big non-agricultural, that is, the three values of non-agricultural employment rate, non-agricultural employment and unemployment rate in the United States. In other words, it refers to data indicators that reflect the employment status of the non-agricultural sector in the United States.
- According to the number of employees
If the number of employed persons is high, it means that the economy is developing well, which is good news for the US dollar index; otherwise, it is bad news. However, there is no inevitable connection between the two in the short term, because the number of employment is not only related to the macroeconomic situation. Other areas, such as the rapid development of high-tech industries, may reduce labor demand, but they can greatly stimulate economic growth.
When the employment situation is weak (strong), the bond market will rebound (fall). The equity investment market rebounded with the weak data bond market because low interest rates are good for stocks. But sometimes the two markets develop in opposite directions. After all, the labor market is good for the stock market because it promotes economic growth and corporate profitability. At the same time, bond traders pay more attention to the potential feasibility of inflationary pressures.
- According to the unemployment rate
The unemployment rate rose during periods of cyclical recession and fell during periods of rapid economic growth. The rise in unemployment is related to economic weakness or contracting and falling interest rates. Conversely, the decline in the unemployment rate is related to economic development and rising interest rates. In this way, people are afraid that if the unemployment rate is too low and workers are hard to find, wages will increase.
- The relationship between the number of small non-agricultural ADP employment and non-agricultural employment
If the ADP employment data is better than expected, investors’ optimistic expectations for Friday’s non-agricultural data will weigh on the U.S. dollar, and gold and silver may be supported. Conversely, if the ADP employment data is worse than expected, investors will be pessimistic about Friday’s non-agricultural data and suppress it. Gold and silver have boosted the US dollar index. It can be said that small non-farm farmers are an expected market before non-farm farmers.