International gold on Friday (October 16) oscillated and closed down. The opening price was US$1,903.43/ounce, the highest price was US$1913.78/ounce, the lowest price was US$1897.63/ounce, and the closing price was US$1901.27/ounce.

The monthly retail sales rate for September in the United States announced on Friday was 1.9%, higher than market expectations of 0.7%.

The commentary stated that consumer spending grew much faster than expected in September, and retail sales increased by 1.9%, indicating that the biggest driver of the US economy is still in a healthy state.

The monthly rate of US industrial output in September announced on Friday was -0.6%, which was lower than market expectations of 0.5%. The Federal Reserve said that the monthly rate of industrial output in the United States fell by 0.6% in September, the first decline after four consecutive months of growth. Most major market sectors experienced declines in September. The consumer goods index fell 1.6%, led by automotive products and consumer energy products, with a decline of more than 4%. As the decrease in information processing equipment was partially offset by the increase in transportation equipment, the output of commercial equipment fell by 1.2%. The output of defense and aerospace equipment increased by 2.1%, while the construction supply and material indexes remained almost unchanged.

The initial value of the U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index released on Friday was 81.2, which was higher than market expectations of 80.5. Comments stated that the slowdown in employment growth, the rise in the number of new coronary pneumonia infections, and the absence of additional aid from the federal government all prompted Consumers pay more attention to the current economic situation. However, the continued slight increase in economic prospects in the coming year largely offset these concerns.

Pelosi said on the show on Sunday that it is still expected to reach a stimulus bill before the election, but Monday is the deadline for progress with the White House. The Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Pelosi, said that the Trump administration has drastically cut the funds used in the stimulus bill to test and track the new crown, cutting the funds proposed by the Democrats in this regard by 55%. The Trump administration will not expand the tax credits for children and income. The government did not add childcare clauses to the relief plan. The Republican Party has still not provided back-to-school funding in the economic stimulus package. Hope to find common ground in the stimulus package. Hope to make more progress on the stimulus plan on Monday. Optimistic about reaching a stimulus plan before the election. Very optimistic about the new coronavirus rescue agreement.

U.S. National Economic Adviser Kudullo said that he had a conversation with U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin on the stimulus plan last night. An aid agreement may not be reached before the election. Reiterate Trump’s desire to reach a stimulus agreement. The Senate Republicans may have enough votes to pass the stimulus bill.

Reports show that the U.S. Senate will vote on a $300 billion Senate Republican epidemic relief bill next Wednesday, which is far below the $2 trillion requested by the Democratic Party. This “slimming” version of the rescue bill was rejected by the Democratic Party in September and is expected to fail again. Senate Majority Leader McConnell said in a statement that the vote will be conducted after an independent vote on the additional compensation plan (PPP).

The latest data on the new crown epidemic released by the World Health Organization shows that as of 19:43 on the 17th Central European Time (1:43 on the 18th Beijing time), the number of confirmed cases of the new crown worldwide increased by 392,471 from the previous day, a record number since the outbreak. The biggest daily increase. The number of newly confirmed cases in a single day globally hit a record high for 2 consecutive days. The recent rapid rebound of the epidemic in Europe is an important reason for the increasing number of confirmed cases worldwide. WHO data shows that the European region reported 153,783 new confirmed cases on the 17th, the largest number of the 6 regions that the WHO divides the world, followed by the Americas.

European Central Bank executive committee Panetta said that the new restrictions have curbed the rebound of the epidemic. The second wave of COVID-19 may delay the recovery of the euro zone. There should be no doubt about the determination of the European Central Bank to maintain price stability.

According to Moody’s analysis, the UK’s rating is downgraded to Aa3, and the outlook is stable. The outlook of the British government has been adjusted from negative to stable. The British government’s economic growth was weaker than expected, and there is still a possibility that it will continue in the future. The stable outlook for the UK reflects the inherent economic and institutional strength of the UK, and the debt is expected to stabilize at the current level. It is expected that the general deterioration of the British fiscal situation will not be quickly reversed. The British government is unlikely to meaningfully rebuild Britain’s financial strength in the next few years. Britain’s potential low growth rate, high debt, and unmanageable policy environment will bring more resistance to solving economic, financial and social challenges. The forecast for the UK also reflects that the lingering uncertainty of Brexit will hinder the recovery in the second half of the year.

According to an analysis by ABN AMRO, Biden’s lead in the polls has shrunk in the past week, so this week’s last presidential candidate debate is very critical. Any reduction in Biden’s advantage in polls may be seen by risky markets. As a negative factor, the financial market has already valued the Democratic Party’s victory.

According to CME “Federal Reserve Observation”: The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in the 0%-0.25% range in November is 100%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.25%-0.50% is 0%; maintaining interest rates at 0% in December The probability of the -0.25% interval is 100%, and the probability of a 25 basis point hike is 0%.

Jinrong China focuses today on:

20:30 Canada August wholesale sales monthly rate;

22:00 US October NAHB real estate market index;

20:00 Fed Chairman Powell attended a panel discussion of the IMF on cross-border payments;

20:45 European Central Bank President Lagarde made an opening speech at an event;

21:00 FOMC Permanent Voting Committee and New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams delivered opening and closing speeches for the webinar organized by the bank;

23:45 Fed Vice Chairman Clarida gave a speech on the economic outlook.

During a period of time before and after the announcement of important market data or major news events, the financial market is highly volatile. Investors can use Jinrong China or Jinrong China’s official website to grasp the latest market conditions in real time and obtain market analysis in time.