Chaos Theory: It is an evolutionary theory in which a system suddenly changes from order to disorder. It is a study of the way and mechanism of the formation of the inherent “random process” in a deterministic system.
“The theory of relativity eliminates the fantasy about absolute space and time; quantum mechanics eliminates the Newtonian dream about controllable measurement processes; and chaos eliminates Laplace’s fantasy about deterministic predictability.”
One thing is that the future cannot be determined. If you are sure one day, you have hit it.
The development of the second thing is achieved through a self-similar order. Seeing a cloud, knowing it is a cloud, and seeing a mountain, knowing it is a mountain, why? It is self-similarity. These are the two basic concepts of chaos theory.
Another aspect of chaos theory is the development of personality. It has three principles. One is that the development of things always moves in the direction of least resistance. The second principle is that when things change direction, they have some structure.
The difference and connection between chaos theory and butterfly effect
- Chaos theory is a method of both qualitative thinking and quantitative analysis. It is used to explore that a single data relationship cannot be used in dynamic systems (such as population movement, chemical reactions, meteorological changes, social behavior, etc.) , And must use the overall, continuous data relationship to explain and predict the behavior.
- The term chaos originally refers to the chaotic state of the universe before it was formed. Our country and ancient Greek philosophers held the theory of chaos for the origin of the universe, claiming that the universe gradually formed the orderly world from the beginning of chaos. In the orderly universe, Western natural scientists have discovered many laws in nature one by one after long-term discussions, such as the familiar gravity, the principle of leverage, and the theory of relativity. These natural laws can be described by a single mathematical formula, and the behavior of objects can be accurately predicted based on this formula.
- In the past half century, scientists have discovered that many natural phenomena can be transformed into simple mathematical formulas, but their behavior cannot be predicted. For example, meteorologist Edward Lorenz discovered that a simple thermal convection phenomenon can actually cause unimaginable changes in the weather, resulting in the so-called “butterfly effect”, that is, a heavy snowfall under the ground. It is caused by a butterfly flapping its wings in a distant place to produce air currents. In the 1960s, the American mathematician Stephen Smale discovered that after a certain regular change in the behavior of certain objects, there was no trace of the subsequent development, presenting a chaotic state of disorder.
- The phenomenon of chaos is caused by the object constantly copying the movement state of the previous stage with a certain rule, which produces unpredictable random effects. The so-called “the smallest difference is a thousand miles away” is the best commentary on this phenomenon. Specifically, chaos occurs in a variable object or system. The object is very simple at the beginning of its action, but after a certain regular continuous change, it produces unexpected consequences, which is the state of chaos. However, this chaotic state is different from the general chaotic chaotic state. After a long-term and complete analysis of this chaotic phenomenon, certain rules can be derived from it. Although the phenomenon of chaos was first used to explain the natural world, it is particularly common in the humanities and social fields because of the mutual traction between things. Such as the ups and downs of the stock market, the flat and tortuous life, the complex process of education.
- Chaos theory has some examples of applications in educational administration, curriculum and teaching, educational research, and educational testing. Since the object of education is humans, humans are individuals who change and fluctuate at any time, and the process of education basically follows certain guidelines and undergoes long-term interaction, so it is quite in line with the framework of chaos theory. Therefore, according to the chaos theory, the education system is prone to produce unexpected results. This result may be positive or negative. Whether it is positive or negative, it is important that in addition to short-term observations, the effectiveness of education or educational research should accumulate long-term data and analyze the possible context to increase the predictability of educational effects, and Use it to expand educational effects.
- Three main assumptions and three new realities based on past decision-making
According to chaos theory, Glass proposed that the three main assumptions that were the basis of decision-making in the past are no longer valid. These assumptions are:
Assumption 1: The enterprise is a closed system that “does what it says”. The outside world has little interference with the actions the company decides to take.
Assumption 2: The business environment is stable. Managers can fully grasp the operating environment and formulate detailed and specific strategies.
Assumption 3: Managers have sufficient knowledge of the causality of events. They can follow the vine and find out the changes that each event will cause.
In Glass’s view, these old assumptions have been replaced by three new realities:
Reality 1: An enterprise is a complex “open” system, which not only affects the environment in which it is located, but is also largely affected by the environment. This means that the actions of a company may not achieve the results it expects.
Reality 2: The environment is changing rapidly (continuously creating opportunities and threats). Senior managers cannot expect to develop a detailed strategy that is fully effective when implemented.
Reality 3: The simple linear causality model that is the basis of traditional decision-making theory has failed. Therefore, the consequences of various events are unpredictable