Brexit negotiations are postponed again

Event review:

Last Wednesday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and EU President Ursula von der Ryan held a working dinner, but no breakthrough was reached. The two sides agreed to extend the negotiations to Sunday, but now the deadline for negotiations has been extended. EU President Ursula von der Leyen issued a note on Sunday: “We believe that further efforts are needed to be responsible.” With or without an agreement, the Brexit transition period will Expires on December 31. There are still differences between the two sides on fisheries, a level playing field, and dispute settlement rules.

Market influence:

Last Friday, the pound against the dollar opened at 1.33008 and closed at 1.32294. The pound depreciated for 3 consecutive days and hit a four-week low of 1.313333 on Friday. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen both warned that a no-deal Brexit is highly likely, but the joint statement said they are willing to ” double the effort”.

analysis:

The extension of the deadline for Brexit negotiations shows that both parties are willing to reach an agreement to leave the European Union. However, the possibility of a no-deal Brexit is very high, because in addition to fisheries, arbitration and a level playing field, the two sides may have more differences.

U.S. consumer confidence index is higher than expected

Event review:

The Consumer Confidence Index of the University of Michigan in the United States rose from 76.9 in November to 81.4 in December 2020, exceeding market expectations of 76.5. The assessment of current economic conditions is more positive (present value 91.8 vs. previous value 87). At the same time, the inflation rate for the next year is expected to be 2.3%, while the inflation expectation for the next five years remains unchanged at 2.5%. The increase in the consumer confidence index may be due to the change in the ruling party. In addition, the FDA approved Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use. Medical staff and elderly residents of nursing homes are first vaccinated. By the end of March next year, more than 100 million people (about 30% of the US population) are expected to be vaccinated.

Market influence:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average continued to fall last Friday. The opening price was 30063 and the closing price was 30045. The daily low was 29721. The uncertainty of the US fiscal stimulus program still exists. Although the House of Representatives and the Senate passed a week-long federal spending extension plan to gain more time to introduce a stimulus package.