Lin Guangyi, whose screen name is “Nongtang Savage”, was born in 1981 and is an authentic futures student. He graduated from the Beijing Institute of Materials and Materials in 2002, majoring in futures, and worked as a trader in China Textile. The futures market is commonly known as Xi Kuang. Although he is a rookie in the futures market, his record is indeed explosive enough, from 28,000 yuan to 2 billion in two years. This kind of genius is a rare encounter in a century.
Lin Guangyu’s basic skills are extremely solid, and the introduction part also said that he is an authentic futures class student, and what he learns in school is technical analysis. Various technical indicators, volume and price analysis, graphical operating range, long-term interest chart and rate of change, etc., and graduated with the first place.
Lin Guangyu, the net name of the “Bongtang Savage”
In 2002, he served as a trader in China Textile. From 2003 to 2004, he miraculously opened a position at the highest price, bought and closed at the lowest price, and successfully shorted cotton. The cotton price has been below 20,000 yuan. Before 2008, Lin Guangyuan had experienced several liquidations. This is related to his operating style. He likes short-term full positions very much. He is naturally good at gambling and enjoys the excitement like surfboards.
In 2010, he became famous in World War I, 6 million yuan in long cotton, 30,000 positions held, and a maximum floating loss of 60%. Finally, he made 220 times and earned 1.3 billion. After backhand shorting 20,000 tons of cotton, after nine and a half months, he made 700 million and the account amount reached 2 billion. In an interview afterwards, he said that at that time, there was a 60% loss on the book, and many people who bought it together had already left. Although it is clear from the market now, at the time, I was actually confused.
Since Lin Guangyi engaged in futures investment, he has experienced four liquidations. It took six years to move from a loss to a surplus, and finally to success. According to related reports, Lin Guangyu started to use 28,000 funds to achieve 150,000 in one month, and then used 6 million in half a year to achieve 6 million. After that, he used 6 million to make cotton and reached 1.3 billion, and then backhanded and made short profits. 700 million, that is to say, 2 billion earned from 28,000, the income is amazing. Regardless of whether it is true or false, but Lin Guangyu has achieved a very successful return in real futures.
However, such a process is not indomitable. According to reports, the maximum floating loss in the market making process has reached 60%. The average person may not have the guts to resist such a large loss. In addition to extraordinary courage, you also need to make accurate judgments. In particular, it is possible to make a long decision and short backhand. This opportunity is very good.
Some prices cannot be lost. When this opportunity is lost, cotton may not have such a big market for 5-10 years. It’s not money that can’t afford to lose, it’s opportunity that can’t afford to lose.
At this time, it is a matter of willpower. If your logic is correct, can you stick to your own ideas? His style is consistent with full and increased positions. Floating loss of 60% is the norm for him, and he is ready to return to zero at any time. The name of “Western Madness” has also come from this.
It’s like a person would be scared and yelling when riding a roller coaster for the first time, but would he still be scared if he sits every day for ten years? I could fall asleep on the roller coaster.
Lin Guangyu’s speech when he went to Beijing in March 2012 to participate in the “10th Anniversary of Peking University’s Advanced Seminar on Financial Derivatives and Futures”:
Question: Can President Lin give us another review of the cotton market?
Lin Guangyue replied: It’s actually very simple to say that the resumption of this order now is bought from here, and then this wave of retracements many people who bought with me have left, but I did not leave. At that time, the book lost 60%. , I keep getting to the top to close the position. Looking back at the market now, everything was clear, but everything was confused at the time. My replay is just two words “suffering”.
Qingze added: I sum up this transaction of President Lin in 16 words: clear goals! The logic is clear! Determined! Market cooperation! What did you come to do in the futures market? what do you want? You have to think clearly about how to achieve this goal. Once you think about it clearly, you will continue to do so unswervingly.
Question: What was your mentality when Mr. Lin lost 60% of his account? Have you thought about stop loss?
Lin Guangyu answered: 60% account floating loss is normal for me, because my style is to trade with full positions, so I am mentally prepared to return to zero. It’s like a person would be scared and yelling when riding a roller coaster for the first time, but would he still be scared if he sits every day for ten years? I could fall asleep on the roller coaster. This is how I am.
Q: Why can you close your position and exit at the highest point?
Lin Guangyu replied: In this position, I know that the shorts are leaving the field. The shorts are all gone. I have no opponents. Who do I play with? I will walk with them. I think it’s luck.
Question: The life of a master like Livermore is not very good. President Lin, have you ever wanted to retreat and leave the futures market? If there is another big opportunity like cotton in the market in the future, can you still replicate your “Huaihai” campaign?
Lin Guangyue answered: Many people study Livmore and think that he is too ideal to lead to that ending, and I just think he did not have ideals. He only knows to do futures. After making money, he doesn’t know what else to do. If he knows that he can do many other things, it won’t end like that. It is impossible for me to copy. I only have 10% of funds in futures, and most of the funds will go to the securities market. I think that when funds are accumulated to a certain extent, futures should be treated as spot goods and deleveraged, so that the operational risk is very low.
When is the best time to leave?
Qingze replied: There is no perfect exit! This question is not you asking me, but I should ask you: When will you leave? If you want to ask me this question, it means that you have not yet started.
Zhang Wenjun answered: When the fundamentals change and technical indicators deviate, you should leave the market.
Lin Guangyu replied: You can leave when you feel satisfied, or you can leave when your expected goal is reached.
Lin Guangyu spoke:
- Whether he can make a lot of money in the futures market depends more on his mind and goal. If it is only as big as a cup, a little rain can always fill a little water. If it encounters a heavy rain, it will be filled with so much; If it is the size of a swimming pool, you can get nothing from a little rain, but in case of heavy rain, it will be a huge profit.
- The real function of the futures market is price discovery and risk management, so my understanding of speculative trading is that this is a corrective action. For example: the output of cotton is too small to supply all the companies that need cotton, then according to the normal logic, those companies with high added value should be allowed to use the cotton, and those low value-added companies cannot let them use it, so The price must be raised. High-value-added companies can afford high-priced raw materials, while low-value-added companies cannot afford high prices, so they cannot be used. This is a reasonable and fair market mechanism. If the opposite happens, it is clear that cotton is not enough, but the price is so low that low-value-added companies can afford to use it, but they cannot create high value-added. High-value-added companies cannot create high value-added without cotton. Value, this shows that there is an error in the market, this kind of time is to correct this error through the futures market. I only wanted to understand this two years ago.
- There is a shortcoming of my personality, that is, I am a gambler. I know it is difficult for me to correct this shortcoming, so I simply incorporate my shortcomings into my transaction.
Nine Years as a Trader of Cotton Futures: Soup Savage
Today I met Mr. Ding, the veteran leader in the golf course, who has been a cotton futures trader unconsciously for nine years. It is estimated that my career as a pure cotton futures trader will come to an end after this round of market conditions. Looking back on these nine Years of experience can be described as wonderful.
There was a gap in domestic misjudgments in 2003 and 2004, and a large amount of imports caused prices to plummet. In that round of decline, the market’s winner was China Textile. At that time, there was no cotton futures. China Textile accounted for more than 50% of the empty orders in the national cotton trading market. More than 80%, almost kept the cotton price below 20,000 with the power of a family. The trading market once called and prohibited China Textile from selling. I am the only trader of China Textile Cotton. For me, who has just graduated less than two years, I can make a deal. The highest selling opening price and the lowest buying closing price in the market are exciting and exciting.
In the financial crisis of 2008, the price of cotton was close to 10,000 yuan along with other commodities. At that time, the first short position in the market was the first futures, and more than 90% of the first short orders belonged to Singapore Oran. Oran was the country’s No. 1 cotton futures profit. 1. At that time, I was the only trader of Oran Cotton, the first group of people in the industry to be bearish.
In 2010, the global cotton price skyrocketed. I started buying from 16,600 until I finally increased my position to the limit of 30,000 lots (two main contracts, each contract limited to 15,000 lots for a single customer), and I closed all positions two days before the price plummeted. In four months, the profit was 220 times, and most of the long profits were wiped out. It is no longer anyone’s trader.
This time short selling should be the final battle. I hope that I can contribute to the cotton industry chain and draw a perfect end to my cotton futures career. Reviewing every successful operation, not distorting the price of cotton, and trying to make the price reasonable is the most important common point.
The 2010-2011 bull and bear two trends have made Lin Guang’s beautiful scenery infinite, young and frivolous, thinking that he is omnipotent. After making more cotton in 2012, he publicly posted orders and started a battle with “East evil” Ge Weidong. Extremely passive, he was finally eliminated by the “Southern Emperor” Ye Qingjun and Ge Weidong, and admitted a loss of 700 million. He said that the loss made him sober a lot, and it was worthwhile to exchange 700 million for his own sublimation. After that, he began to move to the stock market.