Friday (May 22) reported that the intraday dollar index once touched the 99.87 front line, as investors’ concerns about global trade tensions once again boosted the dollar bulls to hedge.
Affected by the dollar, the euro / dollar continued to fall, falling below the 1.09 mark, and the daily low temporarily touched the 1.0885 front line, giving up part of the profit in mid-May;
GBP / USD saw a trade below 1.22, with intraday volatility approaching 80 points.
This article will sort out the short-term technical outlook of the US dollar, the euro and the British pound according to analysts’ views.
- About US dollars:
Neil Jones, head of the foreign exchange sales department of Mizuho Bank, pointed out that “for now, the foreign exchange market is reflecting a pattern of risk closure, and the single day’s performance explains why the dollar is rising.”
“I think the dollar will continue to rise during the day and will have an impact on the movements of the euro, pound and offshore renminbi.”
However, Jones also revealed that it seems that the tension between China and the United States is currently continuing, but it is still cautiously optimistic that the two countries can reach a final agreement, because this is the basis of mutual benefit for both parties.
However, it should be noted that the daily chart shows that the US dollar is currently trading in the lower region of the familiar range since April 7.
Shaun Osborne, chief of foreign exchange strategy at Société Générale, believes that unless there are new fundamental stimulus factors driving transactions, the additional fallback potential for the US dollar may be limited.
Speculators’ net short position data shows that the number of dollar net short positions in the last week has fallen to its lowest level in seven weeks.
- About the Euro:
The euro tried to rebound this week, but failed to continue its upward trend before hitting the 200-day MA.
Karen Jones, head of technical analysis at Commerzbank, pointed out that the ideal is that the weakening of the euro will be suppressed at the 1.0890 level and another round of higher prices will be initiated.
Any performance that closes above the current position of 1.0930 is a necessary condition for the exchange rate to further attack the high of 1.1240 in December last year.
Further weakness, a break below 1.0890 will cause the price to seek support from the short-term uptrend line 1.0797. If the price can maintain this point, it will confirm the recent neutral and optimistic position.
- About pounds:
On the day, UOB gave a report and maintained its view on the exchange rate’s recent trading in the 1.21-1.24 area.
Viewed for 24 hours, the price rebounded after hitting the 1.2187 front line last day. This performance is in line with the bank’s expectation that the pound still has room to fall below 1.2200, but believes that the situation of 1.2175 will not happen yet.
Relatively moderate trading has led to a kinetic energy indicator shift to neutrality, and intraday prices remain trading between the two key positions of 1.2175-1.2270.
The forecast for the next 3 weeks shows that the current price trend does not give any new clues. Maintain the view that the exchange rate may continue to fluctuate in the 1.21-1.24 area on Wednesday.