On Tuesday (December 15) Asian time, spot gold rose slightly, trading around 1827. Because the United States began to vaccinate the new crown vaccine to promote optimism in the broader financial market, investors are hoping for economic recovery.
On Monday (December 14), the United Kingdom, the United States, and Canada started vaccination separately, which increased risk appetite, which suppressed the decline in gold prices. However, the severity of the epidemic in Europe and the United States led to more epidemic prevention blockades, and the rescue plan was split into two parts Part of the bill is expected to be passed later, which limits the further fall in gold prices.
It is worth noting that the 9 gold ETF positions announced recently all show that the holdings of SPDR fund companies are shrinking. The price of gold may continue to fluctuate in a wide range in the short-term, and we can focus on the 1820-1850 shock range in the day.
Continue to pay attention to the progress of the epidemic and vaccination, as well as the negotiation of the stimulus bill in the day, and pay proper attention to the US import price index in November and the monthly rate of industrial output in November.
The U.S. and Canada started vaccinating
It has been one week since the Canadian government approved the new crown vaccine from Pfizer in the United States and BioNTech in Germany. On Monday, Anita, a nurse who takes care of the elderly for a long time, received the vaccine in a Toronto hospital. At almost the same time, in a nursing home in Quebec, 89-year-old Gisele Levesque also received the vaccine. As of this Monday, there have been 464,000 cases of new crown infections in Canada and 13,479 deaths.
The United States also launched the new crown vaccination on the 14th. The first group of people to be vaccinated are medical staff and groups living in long-term care institutions such as nursing homes. In the morning, Sandra Lindsay, a nurse in the intensive care unit of the Long Island Jewish Medical Center in New York, was the first to be vaccinated, becoming the first vaccinator in New York State and one of the first in the United States.
US Vice President Pence said that 2.9 million doses of the new crown vaccine will be distributed by the end of this week.
In addition, Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong made a televised speech this Monday, announcing that Singapore will be one of the first countries in the world to receive a new coronavirus vaccine, and the first batch of vaccines will be shipped to Singapore at the end of December. He said that after studying the vaccine clinical trial data and results, the Singapore Health Sciences Bureau has approved the vaccine jointly produced by Pfizer and BioNTech to be used in Singapore for pandemic prevention. It is hoped that by the third quarter of 2021, there will be enough vaccines for all Singapore citizens and residents living in Singapore for free.
Ed Meir, an analyst at ED&F Man Capital Markets, said in a telephone interview that “the news that Western countries have begun to launch vaccines” suppressed the price of gold, “but I understand that the entire distribution process is complicated. So I don’t know if people are happy early. point.”
Kitco Metals senior analyst Jim Wyckoff said: “We see increased market risk appetite, as evidenced by the rise in global stock markets, which puts some pressure on safe-haven gold.”
As major Western developed countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada began to vaccinate, market risk sentiment has continued to rise, and the rise of the US dollar and gold, which are risk-averse, has been suppressed. Gold was in a downward trend throughout the day, closing down 0.68%, and once fell below the 1820 mark.
(Time-sharing chart of spot gold on December 14) (Time-sharing chart of spot gold on December 14)
The death toll from the US epidemic exceeds 300,000, and London implements the highest level of epidemic prevention restrictions
According to statistics from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 7 o’clock on the 15th, Beijing time,
There are more than 300,000 deaths from the new crown in the United States.
The United States is still the country hardest hit by the epidemic in the world. The US population accounts for 4% of the world’s population, but the cases account for 22% of the world’s population, and the deaths account for 18%. American public health expert Craig Spencer said, “We have seen the deadliest day in American history.”
Currently, about 2,500 people die from the new crown every day in the United States, the highest level since the epidemic. The death toll in a single day has exceeded 3,000 several times, more than the death toll caused by the terrorist attacks on September 11.
British Health Secretary Matt Hancock announced on Monday that it will implement the most stringent anti-epidemic measures on London and parts of southeast England starting Wednesday. He warned that the new variant of the coronavirus may be the root cause of the rapid spread of the epidemic. Hancock said that due to the soaring infection and hospitalization rate, the London epidemic prevention level will be upgraded to the highest level of three.
He added that a new variant of the coronavirus has been discovered, which may be the source of the rapid spread of the epidemic in London and the southeast. He stated in the House of Commons on Monday: “When the virus spreads exponentially, time can not be delayed.”
Hancock said that government scientists are evaluating this new variant of the virus and notified the World Health Organization of the situation. He told parliamentarians that there is no sign that the vaccine is not effective against this new variant.
After the epidemic prevention level is upgraded to Level 3, bars, restaurants and indoor entertainment venues in London will be forced to close, which will have a huge impact on enterprises.
Just as the vaccine began to be widely vaccinated, it is still at the highest risk of the epidemic, and some analysts warned investors not to be too optimistic, which provided partial support to the gold price.
The rescue plan is divided into two parts, or to speed up the passage of some bills
A group of legislators from both parties came up with the details of their proposed $908 billion epidemic relief plan and divided it into two parts to acknowledge the huge differences in state aid and employer liability protection.
Now it is the turn of the Democratic and Republican leaders in Congress to find a way to allow some or all of the above plans to be passed in the House of Representatives and the Senate before the last batch of economic relief provisions in the earlier stimulus measures expire at the end of the year.
Senators who have struggled to reach a compromise in the past two weeks have proposed a $748 billion bailout plan that includes nearly $300 billion in aid to small businesses, an enhanced unemployment benefit of $300 a week, and vaccine distribution. help.
Their second bill contains only two elements: the $160 billion in state aid that Democrats seek, and a liability clause that Republicans say should be part of the aid package.
Democratic Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia stated at a press conference announcing the proposal, “The two-party system and compromise work well in Washington, and now it’s the leaders’ turn to take action to make it a reality quickly.”
Daily FX analysts said that US legislators decided to split the $908 billion Covid relief package into two separate parts.
A larger US$748 billion plan has received broad support from negotiators in the Senate and House of Representatives.
The plan includes small business loans, unemployment benefits, and vaccine distribution. The smaller $160 billion rescue plan may be difficult to pass. In view of the possible partial agreement, gold traders may be liquidating some of the positions established earlier this month due to the expected comprehensive relief plan.
The expectation of the passage of the stimulus bill has increased with the dismantling of the plan, which will also provide gold prices with anti-inflationary demand, prompting gold prices to bottom out.
Today’s gold price outlook
The price of gold stabilized at the first-line support level of 1823 on Monday and is expected to usher in a rebound today. However, given the current volatile market, long-short sentiment is prone to change, investors must not unilaterally bullish or bearish, and need to control risk positions. If it falls below 1823, it will look towards the psychological barrier of 1800, and further support will look towards 1764. If it rebounds and rises, first look to the 1837 first-line resistance, and then the 1850 first-line resistance.
It is also worth noting that the 9 gold ETF holdings recently announced all show that the holdings of SPDR fund companies are shrinking.
This is a bad signal for gold.