On Friday (May 22) in the European market, the euro / dollar continued to fall, the lowest fell to 1.0886, the pound / dollar also fell, the lowest 1.2161. USD / JPY fell moderately, with a minimum of 107.31. Spot gold rebounded, rushing to the highest around 1740, and silver continued its downward trend, approaching the 17 mark. Oil prices plummeted today, with a minimum of $ 30.72 per barrel.
On the news side, the rising tension between China and the United States has impacted market risk sentiment, which has led to the influx of funds into US dollar notes. Comprehensive media reports that the National People’s Congress of China’s review of Hong Kong-related bills, and the Chinese government’s work report did not propose specific targets for annual economic growth, coupled with the news of the global epidemic, have dampened market sentiment.
Euro: As the dollar rebounded, the euro / dollar continued to fall, refreshing the low of four trading days. The euro’s sell-off was also affected by the pessimistic outlook for the euro zone’s economic prospects. According to the latest news, Soros said that the euro zone economy will be affected by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic for longer than most people expect. Unless the EU issues permanent bonds, it may not be able to survive the crisis.
However, the foreign exchange strategist of UOB predicts that the upward momentum of the EUR / USD will not change for the time being, and the next target is 1.1017. The upward momentum disappeared with a sharp decline. For now, the euro / dollar may fall slightly, but for now, any weakness is considered part of the 1.0915 / 1.0985 trading range. In other words, it is not expected to fall below 1.0915 and
Looking ahead, the euro / dollar must close above 1.1030 before it can be expected to continue to rise further. At the same time, as long as the EUR / USD does not fall below the 1.0890 strong support level (previously 1.0825), the overall positive outlook will not change.
GBP: From a technical perspective, GBP / USD is currently blocked by the short-term resistance line of 1.2235, which has previously rebounded from the support of this pattern. If the rally breaks through 1.2235, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2265 on the May 12-17 decline will provide further resistance, and a break will push the exchange rate towards the resistance line of 1.2275.
If it rises above 1.2275, it will cause the exchange rate to break through the 1.2300 integer mark and point to the May 13 high of 1.2340, after which it will rise further. On the downside, a break below the 1.2185 support will wait for confirmation from the 1.2170 balance point. If the exchange rate breaks, it will fall to a monthly low of 1.2075.
Morgan Stanley said that if Britain and the EU cannot reach an agreement, the pound will weaken against the dollar, the euro and the Norwegian krone, the pound will fall below 1.20, and the next support level is close to 1.15.
Yen: Analysts pointed out that the bears are still waiting for the exchange rate to significantly fall below the upward trend line that began on May 6 and the 200-day EMA moving average. It is currently close to 107.40. If the exchange rate breaks, it will further fall to the 107.00 integer mark.
Once the exchange rate falls further below 107, the bears will target the May 13 low of 106.75. On the contrary, unless the exchange rate breaks 107.85, the bulls will not enter the market. If broken, the multiple high of 108.10 since mid-April will become a key level of concern.
Gold: Gold’s rebound from Thursday’s low of $ 1715 per ounce stopped at $ 1740. Currently trading at around $ 1735 per ounce.
Due to the bearishness of the daily chart indicators, the gold price may once again test $ 1715. Gold prices fell by more than 1% on Thursday, recording the largest one-day drop since April 30, closing well below the $ 1727 low of the bearish inverted hammerhead candle line recorded on May 18, Thursday ’s close confirmed The bearish reversal signal released by the inverted hammerhead.
At the same time, the MACD indicator used to confirm the trend change and trend strength fell below zero, confirming the bull to bear. A break below $ 1715 will open the door to psychological support of $ 1700, and the price of gold will need to break through Thursday ’s high of $ 1749 to eliminate the bearish tendency.
Silver: From a technical point of view, it is still in the short-term downtrend channel, and the channel support is located at $ 16.72. It seems that it will trigger the attention of short-term bears. However, the RSI is oversold, and the silver price may fall further below $ 16.72.
If the bears ignore the RSI, they will target the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the May 13-20 rise and the 200HMA moving average of 16.50 / 47 USD. At the same time, if the channel resistance breaks through $ 17.22, the silver price will break through $ 17.63 to refresh the monthly high.
Crude oil: After the previous surge, oil prices suffered a heavy blow today and fell sharply. From a technical point of view, once the WTI oil price continues to trade above the support, it will break through $ 34.75, and the bulls may aim to fill the gap between the top of March 11 at $ 36.64 and the March 6 low of $ 41.20.
If oil prices fall below $ 33.00, the bears will target $ 31.20 and $ 30.