The Fed ’s April minutes also reiterated that the Fed and its officials have recently encountered downside risks to the US economy, the job market may have suffered further losses, maintained a low interest rate environment for a period of time, and expected more stimulus support.
In response to the trend of the US dollar next week, of the 3 analysts surveyed by the FX168 weekly US dollar, 2 were bullish and 1 was flat.
Among them, Ms. Monday, the founder and fund manager of Atomic Asset Management (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd., believes that the US dollar index weekly line is still stable above 4MA, and the long shadow line has ended, but the suppression of the SAR stop loss indicator above has never broken. In the short term, the fluctuation pattern of the US dollar index has not changed, the long and short strength balance, and continue to maintain the consolidation pattern.
In external markets, analysts generally believe that the recent recurrence of tension between China and the United States may become the main factor for the appreciation of the US dollar.
Yukio Ishizuki, currency strategist at Daiwa Securities’ Tokyo office, pointed out that “some problems between China and the United States have been around for some time.”
“Some fairly short-term investors are adjusting their overnight positions, making the trend unpredictable, but overall the dollar looks to be supported.”
Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of foreign exchange and commodity research at Commerzbank, also added that “due to trade frictions at least in the market interpretation that is equivalent to a strong dollar, the weakening of the US dollar over the past few trading days triggered by risk appetite will initially end.”
Shaun Osborne, chief of foreign exchange strategy at Société Générale, also believes that unless there are new fundamental stimulus factors driving transactions, otherwise the dollar may have limited room for retreat.
At the same time, speculators’ net short position data shows that the number of net short positions in the US dollar has fallen to its lowest level in seven weeks in the last week.