In Asian markets, the US dollar index remained basically stable and is now reported near 99.80. Spot gold fell moderately and is now reported at around $ 1728 per ounce. This week investors will welcome many central bankers’ speeches, among which Fed Chairman Powell and European Central Bank President Lagarde are the most concerned. In terms of economic data, this week the United States will publish a large number of key data, of which the first quarter GDP revision value of the United States will be particularly noticeable. In addition to central bank officials’ speeches and economic data, investors will also pay attention to the latest developments in the geopolitical situation this week. If the tension between China and the United States is further intensified, the price of gold is expected to be boosted. turn off.

Both Powell and Lagarde will debut

At 23:00 Beijing time on Friday, Fed Chairman Powell will discuss economic issues through a video conference.

In his economic testimony on Tuesday, Powell reiterated that the Fed will use “a variety of tools to support the economy.” Powell also issued a warning that there is a high degree of uncertainty in the economic outlook and significant downside risks. He called on policy makers to take more fiscal measures to make the economy out of the epidemic.

Powell also expressed concern that the recession caused by the epidemic caused lasting harm to the economy, but emphasized that negative interest rate options are not considered at the moment.

It should be noted that in his recent speech, Powell also pointed out that the current data reveals the success of social isolation, but predicts that the economic indicators in the second quarter will be quite bad.

Powell previously reminded that there is a further deterioration of the job market and the unemployment situation is likely to intensify, so this Friday’s re-discussion of economic issues is expected to release more detailed discussions.

In addition to Powell, there were many important central bank officials this week.

At 03:00 Beijing time on Tuesday, Bank of Canada Governor Poloz will deliver a speech. At 05:00 on Wednesday, Beijing time, Bank of Canada Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins will address the Senate Banking Committee.

At 01:00 on Wednesday, Beijing time, Minneapolis Fed Chairman Kashkali will participate in an online conference on the theme “Living in the world of COVID-19: Discussions with key health and economic experts.”

At 05:00 on Wednesday, Beijing time, the New Zealand Federal Reserve will publish a financial stability report; at 07:00 Beijing time, Federal Reserve Bank of New Zealand Chairman Orr will hold a press conference on the financial stability report.

At 15:30 Beijing time on Wednesday, President of the European Central Bank Lagarde will deliver a speech. Lagarde recently stated that the European Central Bank is ready to expand the scale of asset purchases when necessary.

At 00:30 on Thursday, Beijing time, St. Louis Fed Chairman Brad will speak on the epidemic and restart the economy. On Thursday at 02:00 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will release a Beige Book on Economic Status.

At 23:00 Beijing time on Thursday, New York Fed Chairman Williams will participate in a live discussion on the Fed ’s response to the new crown epidemic.

US GDP comes with many key data

This week, the United States will release a lot of key data, of which the first quarter GDP revision value will be the most concerned.

At 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday, investors will usher in the US first quarter real GDP (GDP) revised value. Media surveys show that the revised value of the annualized real GDP annualized rate for the first quarter of the United States is expected to decline by 4.8%, the decline is consistent with the initial value.

Analysts pointed out that if the U.S. GDP revised value fell more than expected, this may weigh on the dollar. In addition, hedging buying triggered by U.S. economic worries is also expected to provide support for gold prices.

An analyst from Holland International Group wrote in a report on Friday: “We expect GDP data to be slightly lower than the initial value of 4.8%. The market will continue to expect new stimulus measures from the United States, which may take several weeks. time.”

According to data released by the US Department of Commerce on April 29, the initial quarterly rate of real GDP in the United States fell by 4.8% in the first quarter, the largest quarterly decline since 2009.

This is the first negative growth since the GDP fell 1.1% in the first quarter of 2014, and the lowest level since the GDP fell by 8.4% during the worst period of the financial crisis in the fourth quarter of 2008.

The decline in GDP data reflects a sharp decline in economic activity in the last two weeks of March, and millions of Americans sought unemployment benefits in the past two weeks.

In addition to the GDP data on Thursday, the data that the United States needs to focus on this week include the sales of new homes in April in the United States on Tuesday, the consumer confidence index of the May Consultative Council and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index in May, the durable goods orders in April on In the first quarter, the PCE price index, the number of jobless claims at the beginning of last week, and the April NAR seasonally adjusted existing home sales contract index, as well as the Friday University of Michigan consumer confidence index.

Geographical tensions may help gold reach the 1800 mark

International spot gold continued to brush more than 7-year highs last Monday, and began to retreat after touching US $ 1764.80 per ounce. Most of the week continued to collate in the region of US $ 1710-50 per ounce.

Analysts pointed out that on the one hand, the price of gold was suppressed by the gradual reopening of the economy and the rebound in market risk appetite. On the other hand, it was supported by trade tensions, a low interest rate environment and more stimulus expectations.

A well-known financial website wrote that the price of gold is still trapped between key trend levels (1725.90 USD / ounce support and 1741.30 USD / ounce resistance). Therefore, before confirming the fall of the above support or the above resistance, it will maintain Neutral position. said that it needs to be reminded that if the gold price falls below the $ 1725.90 / oz support, this will put the gold price under bearish pressure, mainly targeting the $ 1691.10 / oz level. On the other hand, once the price of gold overcomes the resistance of $ 1743.00 per ounce, this will reactivate the main bullish trend scenario, with the next major target at $ 1810.00 per ounce.

Those who are bullish on gold are concerned about the growing geopolitical tensions, which may eventually help the gold price break through the $ 1800 / oz level.

The third session of the 13th National People’s Congress held a press conference on the evening of May 21st. The spokesperson of the conference Zhang Yesui said that this conference will review the decision of the National People’s Congress on establishing and perfecting the legal system and enforcement mechanism of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region to maintain national security (draft)”.

US President Trump recently said that if China passes Hong Kong legislation, the United States will strongly oppose it. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said at a press conference on the 22nd that Hong Kong affairs are China’s internal affairs and oppose any interference from outside forces.

German Commercial Bank analyst Cartsen Fritsch said: “This may trigger new protests in Hong Kong, leading to further deterioration of Sino-US relations.”

On May 23, the US Department of Commerce announced that a total of 33 Chinese companies and institutions will be included in the “Entity List”, including 360 and Yuncong Technology. After these enterprises and departments are included in the “entity list”, the US government can restrict the export, import or re-export to these institutions in accordance with the “Export Administration Regulations.” This means that the listed companies cannot have any commercial transactions with the United States.

Sean Lusk, co-head of Walsh Trading ’s commercial hedging business, expects investors to continue buying on dips. Some market observers said that the renewed tension between China and the US supported the price of gold.

Adrian Day, Chairman and CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management, believes that this week the price of gold may fall first and then rise. Day explained, “As the US economy begins to restart, the stock market will begin to show optimism, which may trigger a long-term decline in gold prices, but due to the so-called ‘policy’ pursued by major central banks in the world, we are still extremely bullish on gold. . “

An ING strategist said: “As China-centric political tensions once again raise concerns about another trade war, investors may see history repeat itself.”

Charlie Nedoss, senior market strategist at LaSalle Futures Group, said that once panic appears, the price of gold will rise.

Nedoss said: “As China pays more attention to the domestic market and the development of the situation in Hong Kong, the dynamics of the gold market are shifting from inflation-based transactions to geopolitical and economic panic transactions. I expect gold prices to rise this week.”

Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at IA Wealth Management, said it is also important to pay close attention to the impact of geopolitical tensions on the overall global recovery, and whether they may “force the central bank to take more action.”