U.S. stocks closed on Thursday. The Dow fell more than 80 points. The S&P also gave up the previous gains and closed down. Apple and Tesla helped the Nasdaq to close up 0.27%, because the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time last week was much lower than expected. However, the deadlock in the US stimulus plan has not been broken, and the market is still under pressure.
As of the close, the Dow fell 80.12 points to 27896.72 points, a decrease of 0.29%; the Nasdaq rose 30.26 points to 11042.50 points, an increase of 0.27%; the S&P 500 index fell 6.92 points to 3373.43 points, a decrease of 0.2%.
The following is a summary of comments from Wall Street economists and analysts:
The U.S. stock market is rotating, but the width has not expanded
Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital, an investment company, said: “The market has gone through some rotations, but the breadth has not expanded. If the market breadth can really expand, then in this round of market In the rebound, it is indeed possible to usher in a second wave of gains. In the absence of any major news to boost the market, it will take some time for the stock market to break through historical highs.”
Oppenheimer’s senior analyst Ari Wald said on Thursday that even before the outbreak, the performance of cyclical stocks was so bad, which magnified the year-to-date performance of technology stocks. Rally. He believes that some market participants claim that technology stocks are currently in a bubble, which is a misleading simplification. “The point we want to point out is that overall market conditions are far from a bubble,” Wald said. “But we see that, as measured by the gap between the best-performing and worst-performing S&P 500 index sectors, there has been a bubble in industry dispersion. This gap is widening and has reached the end of the TMT (Technology, Media and The communications) bubble has never been seen since. At present, in two years, technology stocks have risen by about 50%, and energy stocks have fallen by about 50%. But if you study these areas in depth, the speed of change in the technology industry (always) In keeping with history, it is far from reaching the extreme level now, far from the level we saw in the late 1990s. The extreme situation we have seen occurs in the weakness of value stocks. This kind of bubble and dispersion is due to value stocks. Weak and swell.”
Ed Clissell, chief U.S. strategist at market research firm Ned Davis Research, pointed out that the S&P 500’s record high will mark the index’s fastest reversal from a 30% decline on record. He also pointed out that the S&P 500 requires broader market participation to achieve a meaningful breakthrough above the February high. Krisel said in a report: “Improvements in long-term market breadth indicators will strengthen the reason for further gains, and better long-term breadth may require more participation by value stocks that are now lagging behind. But even if the standard The General 500 Index has not been able to break the February record recently, and the past six months have also been historic. The question is, where will the stock market go from its current level?”
Job market conditions have improved, but are still higher than the peak in the previous recession
The market has received some not-so-bad news in terms of employment, as the number of laid-off workers who applied for unemployment benefits last week fell below 1 million for the first time since March. The US Department of Labor said on Thursday that about 963,000 people have applied for unemployment benefits for the first time, which is a rough measure of the number of layoffs in companies. Fannie Mae’s chief economist, Doug Duncan, said in a report: “The labor market is continuing to improve gradually. Although the rate of initial jobless claims was temporarily suspended, it seems to be accelerating. This is an encouraging sign for the labor market recovery. However, the number of initial jobless claims is still higher than the peak in the previous recession.”
Lydia Boussour, a senior economist at Oxford Economics, said it is encouraging that the number of people claiming unemployment benefits every week is less than 1 million. “But this is still A painfully high number. Our labor market is still severely affected by this crisis.” Investors worry that when the additional $600 weekly unemployment benefit expires last month, the money in the pockets of workers may decrease, which will weaken consumer spending and become a drag on the economy. “The economy needs another fiscal’booster’,” Bussul said. “If it is not available, we will face the risk of stagnation in economic activity and the labor market losing momentum again.”
The US Congress has still failed to pass the rescue plan, and the market is in urgent need of fiscal stimulus
Democrats and Republicans are still very divided, but Wall Street still hopes they can reach an agreement on a stimulus plan, which investors say is crucial. Jason Draho, head of asset allocation for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, said: “The news from Washington is really ignored by the market.” He said, as economic data continues to show With steady improvement, investors have gained more confidence in the broader economic recovery. He pointed out: “Although there are still many weaknesses, all parts of the data show improvement. This is mild, but not a reversal.”
Investors continue to pay close attention to the negotiations in the US Congress on the new crown virus rescue plan for American families and businesses. Although Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said this week that the two sides are still far from reaching an agreement, many investors believe that reaching an agreement is certain. Larry Kudlow, the White House economic adviser, also said that the negotiations are deadlocked. Tom Esaye, editor of Sevens Report, wrote: “The market still hopes and is very much looking forward to signing an actual stimulus bill. Looking ahead, stimulus bill negotiations will continue, but (President Trump’s) The executive order (plus recent robust data) may reduce the urgency of taking action, so realistically speaking, the market will expect an agreement in the coming weeks.”
The presidential election is coming soon, the market is still worried about the prospects of corporate profitability
Kevin Grogan, managing director of wealth investment strategy at the wealth management company Buckingham Strategic Wealth, said on Thursday: “One thing I want to remind investors is that when our clients ask about the upcoming US presidential election At the time, I told them that you might be right. For example, if Biden is elected, it will be bad for the market, but the market may still rise for other reasons.” He also added: “We know that Over time, the positive return of stocks far exceeds cash, so something may happen in the market and the world to replace people’s judgments about the potential impact of the election. If you decide to adjust your investment portfolio because of the upcoming election, then You may still be wrong in the end.” Grogan also mentioned that the market unexpectedly moved higher the day after the 2016 election day, when the S&P 500 index closed up 1.1% on that day (November 9, 2016), despite many previous analyses. Teachers have said that if Trump wins that election, it will cause market turmoil. He said: “It is difficult to say in which direction things will develop due to the general election, and how much progress will be made.”
Although most of the second-quarter earnings season was stronger than expected, concerns about the prospects of the company continued. Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Va., said: “Many large companies seem to be downplaying earnings prospects for the next few quarters. This has led to a market downturn, without real The “catalyst” pushes it higher and will always overcome obstacles.”