From the perspective of valuation changes, in terms of major exchange rate changes, the US dollar exchange rate index depreciated by 1.3% in August; the major non-US dollar currencies appreciated overall against the US dollar, with the euro rising 1.3% against the US dollar, the British pound rising 2.2% against the US dollar, and the Japanese yen The dollar fell slightly by 0.1%. In terms of asset prices, the hedged global bond index priced in US dollars fell 0.8%; the stock index rose as a whole, with the S&P 500 rising 7%, the Eurozone Stoxx 50 index rising 3.1%, and the Nikkei 225 index rising 6.6% . Considering the effects of exchange rate translation and asset price changes, valuation changes have led to an increase in the scale of foreign exchange reserves this month.
In terms of real trade, the manufacturing PMI index of major overseas economies continued to improve in August. The American Institute of Supply Management Manufacturing PMI index reached 56%, a record high since February 2019. The Eurozone manufacturing PMI index dropped by 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. To 51.7%, but also set a new high since December 2018. The PMI index of my country’s new export orders rebounded by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month to 49.1%, a record high this year. The improvement of the overseas economy has helped drive export restoration. In August, my country’s export value increased by 9.5% year-on-year, setting the fastest single-month growth rate since April 2019, achieving a trade surplus of 58.93 billion U.S. dollars. Real trade contributed to this month’s foreign exchange reserves. The rise forms a contribution.
In terms of cross-border capital flows, despite a small net outflow of 2.03 billion yuan in northbound funds in August, overseas funds continued to increase their holdings of RMB bonds. According to Wind Information, as of the end of August, the scale of bonds under custody of foreign institutions in CCDC reached 245.783 billion yuan, an increase of 117.75 billion yuan from the previous month, which was a 21-month increase; the bonds under custody of the Shanghai Clearing Exchange were 340.9 billion yuan, an increase of 193.2 yuan from the previous month. 100 million yuan. Cross-border capital inflows have also contributed to the growth of foreign exchange reserves.
The scale of foreign exchange reserves is expected to remain stable in the next stage
With reference to the future trend of changes in the scale of foreign exchange reserves, the current global epidemic has not yet been fully controlled, and there are still many unstable and uncertain factors in the international economic and financial fields.